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9780792359968

Climate Change

by ; ; ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780792359968

  • ISBN10:

    0792359968

  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 2000-02-01
  • Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub
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Summary

Global climate change - rapid, substantial and human induced - may have radical consequences for life on earth. The problem is a complex one, however, demanding a multi-disciplinary approach. A simple cost-benefit analysis cannot capture the essentials, nor can the issue be reduced to an emissions reduction game, as the Kyoto process tries to do. It is much more sensible to adopt an integrative approach, which reveals that global climate change needs to be considered as a spider in a web, a triggering factor for a range of other, related problems - land use changes, water supply and demand, food supply, energy supply, human health, air pollution, etc. But an approach like this, which takes account of all items of knowledge, known and uncertain, does not produce clear-cut, final and popular answers. It does provide useful insights, however, which will allow comprehensive and effective long-term climate strategies to be put into effect. Climate Change: An Integrated Perspective will appeal to a broad spectrum of readers. It is a useful source for the climate-change professionals, such as policy makers and analysts, natural and social scientists. It is also suitable for educationalists, students and indeed anyone interested in the fascinating world of multidisciplinary research underlying our approach to this global change issue.

Table of Contents

Contributors xiii
Preface xv
Climate change: an integrated perspective
1(10)
P. Martens
J. Rotmans
Introduction
1(1)
Climate change in perspective
2(3)
This book
5(6)
The climate system
11(40)
D. Jansen
Introduction
11(1)
Radiation budget
12(7)
The greenhouse effect
13(1)
Greenhouse gases
14(4)
The enhanced greenhouse effect
18(1)
Circulation of energy
19(14)
Atmospheric circulation
23(3)
Oceanic circulation
26(7)
Changing climate
33(8)
Solar radiation and Milankovich
33(3)
Albedo and albedo-temperature feedback
36(2)
Greenhouse gases and the water vapour-temperature feedback
38(1)
Crucial role of aerosols and clouds
38(3)
Changing climate interacting with the different spheres
41(8)
Cryosphere
42(3)
Biosphere and biogeochemical feedbacks
45(3)
Geosphere
48(1)
Discussion
49(2)
References
50(1)
Modelling of the climate system
51(54)
J. Shukla
J.L. Kinter
E.K. Schneider
D.M. Straus
Introduction
51(1)
Simple climate modelling
52(4)
Energy balance climate models
52(3)
Radiative-convective models
55(1)
General circulation models (GCMs)
56(23)
Introduction
56(2)
Basic characteristics
58(2)
Climate sensitivity
60(1)
Atmospheric modelling
61(5)
Ocean modelling
66(2)
Modelling other subsystems
68(2)
Choices in the philosophy and design of GCMs
70(2)
Equilibrium experiments
72(3)
Transient experiments
75(4)
Model calibration
79(3)
Model validation
82(8)
Comparison with observational datasets
83(4)
Inter-model comparison
87(3)
Climate predictions
90(7)
Prediction of seasonal to inter-annual variations
92(3)
Prediction of decadal variations
95(1)
Prediction of changes in variability due to climate change
96(1)
Limitations in present climate modelling
97(4)
The different subsystems
98(2)
The complex interaction
100(1)
Discussion
101(4)
References
102(3)
Global biogeochemical cycles
105(38)
J. Rotmans
M. den Elzen
Introduction
105(1)
The global carbon cycle
106(6)
Introduction
106(2)
The present global carbon cycle
108(2)
Anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle
110(2)
Conclusions
112(1)
The global nitrogen cycle
112(10)
Introduction
112(1)
The present nitrogen cycle
112(6)
Anthropogenic disturbance of the global nitrogen cycle
118(4)
Conclusions
122(1)
The global phosphorus cycle
122(5)
Introduction
122(1)
The present phosphorus cycle
123(3)
Anthropogenic perturbation of the global phosphorus cycle
126(1)
Conclusions
127(1)
The global sulphur cycle
127(5)
Introduction
127(1)
The present sulphur cycle
128(3)
Anthropogenic perturbation of the global sulphur cycle
131(1)
Conclusions
132(1)
Interaction between the global element cycles and climate change
132(4)
Discussion
136(7)
References
137(6)
Causes of greenhouse gas emissions
143(58)
K. Chatterjee
Introduction
143(5)
Industry
148(6)
Main developments in developed countries
148(1)
Main developments in developing countries
149(1)
Chemical industry
150(1)
Non-chemical industrial sectors
151(3)
Future projections
154(1)
Energy resources
154(13)
Fossil resources
155(3)
Renewable energy resources
158(7)
Nuclear energy resources
165(1)
Minerals
166(1)
Population
167(4)
Historical growth
167(1)
Birth rate
168(1)
Death rate
169(1)
Future population projections
170(1)
Land use
171(11)
Deforestation
171(9)
Urbanisation
180(1)
Burning
180(2)
Agriculture
182(5)
Agricultural activities
182(3)
International trade
185(2)
Transport
187(8)
Road transport
188(3)
Air transport
191(1)
Rail transport
192(2)
Marine transport
194(1)
Discussion
195(1)
Conclusions
196(5)
References
198(3)
Impacts of climate change
201(38)
M.L. Parry
P. Martens
Introduction
201(1)
Methodology of impact assessment
201(9)
Approaches to the assessment of impacts
202(2)
The selection of methods for impact assessment
204(6)
Assessments of impacts in different systems and sectors
210(23)
Sea-level rise, coastal zones and small islands
210(3)
Impacts on food and fibre production
213(7)
Impacts on water supply and use
220(3)
Impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
223(4)
Human health
227(6)
Adapting to climate change
233(1)
Discussion
234(5)
References
235(4)
Integrated Assessment modelling
239(38)
J. Rotmans
M. van Asselt
Introduction
239(2)
Methods for integrated assessment
241(3)
IA modelling
244(11)
History
244(1)
Model typology
244(9)
IA-cycle
253(2)
Critical methodological issues in IA modelling
255(4)
Aggregation versus disaggregation
255(2)
Treatment of uncertainty
257(2)
Blending qualitative and quantitative knowledge
259(1)
Challenges
259(10)
IA modelling of population and health
263(1)
IA modelling of consumption behaviour
264(2)
Multi-agent modelling
266(1)
Regional IA modelling
266(3)
The next generations of IA models
269(8)
References
271(6)
Perspectives and the subjective dimension in modelling
277(42)
M. van Asselt
J. Rotmans
Introduction
277(3)
From subjectivity to plurality
280(3)
Framework of perspectives
283(12)
Methodology of multiple model routes
295(8)
Application of multiple model routes
303(8)
Conclusions
311(8)
References
313(6)
Global decision making: climate change politics
319(38)
J. Gupta
Introduction
319(1)
From scientific description to problem definition
320(12)
Scientific uncertainty and controversy
320(1)
Types of science and problems
321(4)
The use of science by policy makers
325(3)
From scientific issue to political agenda item
328(1)
An integrated science-policy model
329(3)
The technocratic stage-I
332(7)
Regime formation: a brief history
332(2)
Different country positions
334(2)
The North-South angle
336(1)
The consensus in the climate convention
337(1)
Information sufficient for euphoric negotiation
338(1)
The adhocracy stage-II
339(7)
Underlying North-South conflicts: problem definition, science, values and solutions
339(5)
Underlying domestic conflicts: environment versus growth
344(1)
A stage of slow-down?
345(1)
Beyond adhocracy: stage III and IV
346(3)
Resolving domestic issues: the stakeholder model (III)
346(2)
International issues: beyond the stakeholder approach (IV)
348(1)
Conclusion
349(8)
References
350(7)
Epilogue: scientific advice in the world of power politics
357(48)
S. Boehmer-Christiansen
Introduction
357(5)
The role of scientific advice and the climate treaty
362(8)
Moving towards implementation?
362(2)
Early doubts: scientific uncertainty and interests
364(1)
Believing scientific advice on climate change
365(2)
The need for transparency
367(1)
Nightmares of policy-makers
368(2)
Eleven uses of science in politics
370(10)
Concepts and definitions: what is politics?
370(1)
Politics as purposeful activity involving the use of power by institutions
370(2)
The allocation of public resources and the research enterprise
372(1)
The functions of science in politics
373(4)
The gap between policy models and policy implementation
377(3)
The ultimate irrelevance of the natural sciences?
380(1)
The origin of scientific advice on climate change and its linkage to energy policy
380(8)
From weather modification to a New Ice Age and the limits of growth
380(2)
Aggressive expansion of climate research
382(2)
The Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases: `independent science' warns
384(1)
A call for a global convention and policy advocacy turn against fossil fuels
385(1)
From non-governmental to intergovernmental science: ambiguity prevails
386(2)
The research enterprise attracts powerful allies
388(4)
The United Nations seek an environmental role
388(1)
Energy lobbies seek opportunities
389(1)
Threatened national bureaucracies also seek sustainability
390(2)
Conclusions: the environment in global politics
392(3)
Questions for further thought and discussion
395(10)
References
397(8)
Index 405

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