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9780881322378

Assessing Financial Vulnerability

by ; ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780881322378

  • ISBN10:

    0881322377

  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2000-06-01
  • Publisher: Peterson Inst for Intl Economics
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List Price: $20.00

Author Biography

Morris Goldstein is the Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Institute Graciela L. Kaminsky, visiting fellow, is a professor of economics and international relations at George Washington University Carmen M. Reinhart, visiting fellow, is a professor at the University of Maryland in the School of Public Affairs and the Department of Economics

Table of Contents

Preface ix
Acknowledgments xv
Introduction
1(10)
Organization of the book
9(2)
Methodology
11(22)
General Guidelines
11(7)
Putting the Signals Approach to Work
18(15)
Empirical Results
33(12)
The Monthly Indicators: Robustness Check
33(5)
The Annual Indicators: What Works?
38(2)
Do the Indicators Flash Early Enough?
40(2)
Microeconomic Indicators: Selective Evidence
42(3)
Rating the Rating Agencies
45(10)
Do Sovereign Credit Ratings Predict Crises?
45(4)
Why Do Credit Ratings Fail to Anticipate Crises?
49(3)
Do Financial Markets Anticipate Crises?
52(3)
An Assessment of Vulnerability: Out-of-Sample Results
55(18)
Vulnerability and Signals
56(8)
A Composite Indicator and Crises Probabilities
64(9)
Contagion
73(12)
Defining Contagion
74(1)
Theories of Contagion and Their Implications
75(1)
Empirical Studies
76(1)
Trade and Financial Clusters and a Composite Contagion Index
77(2)
What the Index Reveals about Three Recent Crisis Episodes
79(6)
The Aftermath of Crises
85(10)
The Recovery Process
85(4)
Some Caveats
89(6)
Summary of Results and Concluding Remarks
95(16)
Summary of Findings
95(14)
Would the Publication of the Indicators Erode Their Early Warning Role?
109(1)
Do the Better Performing Indicators Carry Policy Implications?
110(1)
Appendix A: Data and Definitions 111(4)
References 115(6)
Index 121

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