Preface

Basic Risk Concepts

(54)

Introduction

(1)

Formal Definition of Risk

(17)

Outcomes and Likelihoods

(3)

Uncertainty and Meta-Uncertainty

(2)

Risk Assessment and Management

(2)

Alternatives and Controllability of Risk

(4)

Outcome Significance

(2)

Causal Scenario

(1)

Population Affected

(1)

Population Versus Individual Risk

(3)

Summary

(1)

Source of Debates

(8)

Different Viewpoints Toward Risk

(1)

Differences in Risk Assessment

(3)

Differences in Risk Management

(4)

Summary

(1)

Risk-Aversion Mechanisms

(9)

Risk Aversion

(1)

Three Attitudes Toward Monetary Outcome

(3)

Significance of Fatality Outcome

(1)

Mechanisms for Risk Aversion

(1)

Bayesian Explanation of Severity Overestimation

(1)

Bayesian Explanation of Likelihood Overestimation

(3)

PRAM Credibility Problem

(1)

Summary

(1)

Safety Goals

(20)

Availability, Reliability, Risk, and Safety

(1)

Hierarchical Goals for PRAM

(1)

Upper and Lower Bound Goals

(5)

Goals for Normal Activities

(1)

Goals for Catastrophic Accidents

(5)

Idealistic Versus Pragmatic Goals

(4)

Summary

(1)

References

(1)

Problems

(1)

Accident Mechanisms and Risk Management

(40)

Introduction

(1)

Accident-Causing Mechanisms

(20)

Common Features of Plants with Risks

(2)

Negative Interactions Between Humans and the Plant

(1)

A Taxonomy of Negative Interactions

(4)

Chronological Distribution of Failures

(2)

Safety System and Its Malfunctions

(3)

Event Layer and Likelihood Layer

(5)

Dependent Failures and Management Deficiencies

(3)

Summary

(1)

Risk Management

(10)

Risk-Management Principles

(3)

Accident Prevention and Consequence Mitigation

(1)

Failure Prevention

(3)

Propagation Prevention

(3)

Consequence Mitigation

(1)

Summary

(1)

Preproduction Quality Assurance Program

(10)

Motivation

(1)

Preproduction Design Process

(1)

Design Review for PQA

(5)

Management and Organizational Matters

(1)

Summary

(1)

References

(1)

Problems

(1)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment

(70)

Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

(9)

Initiating-Event and Risk Profiles

(1)

Plants without Hazardous Materials

(1)

Plants with Hazardous Materials

(1)

Nuclear Power Plant PRA: WASH-1400

(4)

WASH-1400 Update: NUREG-1150

102

(2)

Summary

104

(1)

Initiating-Event Search

104

(13)

Searching for Initiating Events

104

(1)

Checklists

105

(1)

Preliminary Hazard Analysis

106

(2)

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis

108

(2)

FMECA

110

(3)

Hazard and Operability Study

113

(2)

Master Logic Diagram

115

(1)

Summary

115

(2)

The Three PRA Levels

117

(11)

Level 1 PRA---Accident Frequency

117

(9)

Level 2 PRA---Accident Progression and Source Term

126

(1)

Level 3 PRA---Offside Consequence

127

(1)

Summary

127

(1)

Risk Calculations

128

(4)

The Level 3 PRA Risk Profile

128

(2)

The Level 2 PRA Risk Profile

130

(1)

The Level 1 PRA Risk Profile

130

(1)

Uncertainty of Risk Profiles

131

(1)

Summary

131

(1)

Example of a Level 3 PRA

132

(1)

Benefits, Detriments, and Successes of PRA

132

(6)

Tangible Benefits in Design and Operation

132

(1)

Intangible Benefits

133

(1)

PRA Negatives

134

(1)

Success Factors of PRA Program

134

(2)

Summary

136

(1)

References

136

(2)

Chapter Three Appendices

138

(1)

Conditional and Unconditional Probabilities

138

(5)

Definition of Conditional Probabilities

138

(1)

Chain Rule

139

(1)

Alternative Expression of Conditional Probabilities

140

(1)

Independence

140

(1)

Bridge Rule

141

(1)

Bayes Theorem for Discrete Variables

142

(1)

Bayes Theorem for Continuous Variables

143

(1)

Venn Diagrams and Boolean Operations

143

(5)

Introduction

143

(1)

Event Manipulations via Venn Diagrams

144

(1)

Probability and Venn Diagrams

145

(1)

Boolean Variables and Venn Diagrams

146

(1)

Rules for Boolean Manipulations

147

(1)

A Level for 3 PRA---Station Blackout

148

(17)

Plant Description

148

(2)

Event Tree for Station Blackout

150

(2)

Accident Sequences

152

(1)

Fault Trees

152

(1)

Accident-Sequence Cut Sets

153

(2)

Accident-Sequence Quantification

155

(1)

Accident-Sequence Group

156

(1)

Uncertainty Analysis

156

(1)

Accident-Progression Analysis

156

(7)

Summary

163

(1)

Problems

163

(2)

Fault-Tree Construction

165

(62)

Introduction

165

(1)

Fault Trees

166

(1)

Fault-Tree Building Blocks

166

(9)

Gate Symbols

166

(6)

Event Symbols

172

(2)

Summary

174

(1)

Finding Top Events

175

(4)

Forward and Backward Approaches

175

(1)

Component Interrelations and System Topography

175

(1)

Plant Boundary Conditions

176

(1)

Example of Preliminary Forward Analysis

176

(3)

Summary

179

(1)

Procedure for Fault-Tree Construction

179

(17)

Fault-Tree Example

180

(4)

Heuristic Guidelines

184

(4)

Conditions Induces by OR and AND Gates

188

(6)

Summary

194

(2)

Automated Fault-Tree Synthesis

196

(31)

Introduction

196

(1)

System Representation by Semantic Networks

197

(7)

Event Development Rules

204

(2)

Recursive Three-Value Procedure for FT Generation

206

(4)

Examples

210

(10)

Summary

220

(2)

References

222

(1)

Problems

223

(4)

Qualitative Aspects of System Analysis

227

(36)

Introduction

227

(1)

Cut Sets and Path Sets

227

(13)

Cut Sets

227

(1)

Path Sets (Tie Sets)

227

(2)

Minimal Cut Sets

229

(1)

Minimal Path Sets

229

(1)

Minimal Cut Generation (Top-Down)

229

(2)

Minimal Cut Generation (Bottom-Up)

231

(1)

Minimal Path Generation (Top-Down)

232

(1)

Minimal Path Generation (Bottom-Up)

233

(1)

Copying with Large Fault Trees

234

(6)

Common-Cause Failure Analysis

240

(6)

Common-Cause Cut Sets

240

(1)

Common-Causes and Basic Events

241

(1)

Obtaining Common-Cause Cut Sets

242

(4)

Fault-Tree Linking Along an Accident Sequence

246

(5)

Simple Example

246

(2)

A More Realistic Example

248

(3)

Noncoherent Fault Trees

251

(12)

Introduction

251

(1)

Minimal Cut Sets for a Binary Fault Tree

252

(5)

Minimal Cut Sets for a Multistate Fault Tree

257

(1)

References

258

(1)

Problems

259

(4)

Quantification of Basic Events

263

(76)

Introduction

263

(1)

Probabilistic Parameters

264

(21)

A Repair-to-Failure Process

265

(6)

A Repair-Failure-Repair Process

271

(3)

Parameters of Repair-to-Failure Process

274

(4)

Parameters of Failure-to-Repair Process

278

(2)

Probabilistic Combined-Process Parameters

280

(5)

Fundamental Relations Among Probabilistic Parameters

285

(12)

Repair-to-Failure Parameters

285

(4)

Failure-to-Repair Parameters

289

(1)

Combined-Process Parameters

290

(7)

Constant-Failure Rate and Repair-Rate Model

297

(7)

Repair-to-Failure Process

297

(2)

Failure-to-Repair Process

299

(1)

Laplace Transform Analysis

299

(4)

Markov Analysis

303

(1)

Statistical Distributions

304

(1)

General Failure and Repair Rates

304

(5)

Estimating Distribution Parameters

309

(13)

Parameter Estimation for Repair-to-Failure Process

309

(9)

Parameter Estimation for Failure-to-Repair Process

318

(4)

Components with Multiple Failure Models

322

(3)

Environmental Inputs

325

(1)

Command Failures

325

(1)

Secondary Failures

325

(1)

Human Error

326

(1)

System-Dependent Basic Event

326

(1)

References

327

(1)

Chapter Six Appendices

327

(1)

Distributions

327

(5)

Mean

328

(1)

Median

328

(1)

Mode

328

(1)

Variance and Standard Deviation

328

(1)

Exponential Distribution

329

(1)

Normal Distribution

330

(1)

Log-Normal Distribution

330

(1)

Weibull Distribution

330

(1)

Binomial Distribution

331

(1)

Poisson Distribution

331

(1)

Gamma Distribution

332

(1)

Other Distributions

332

(1)

A Constant-Failure-Rate Property

332

(1)

Derivation of Unavailability Formula

333

(1)

Computational Procedure for Incomplete Test Data

334

(1)

Median-Rank Plotting Position

334

(1)

Failure and Repair Basic Definitions

335

(4)

Problems

335

(4)

Confidence Intervals

339

(24)

Classical Confidence Limits

339

(12)

Introduction

339

(1)

General Principles

340

(6)

Types of Life-Tests

346

(1)

Confidence Limits for Mean Time to Failure

346

(3)

Confidence Limits for Binomial Distributions

349

(2)

Bayesian Reliability and Confidence Limits

351

(3)

Discrete Bayes Theorem

351

(1)

Continuous Bayes Theorem

352

(1)

Confidence Limits

353

(1)

References

354

(1)

Chapter Seven Appendix

354

(1)

The χ2, Student's t, and F Distributions

354

(9)

χ2 Distribution Application Modes

355

(1)

Student's t Distribution Application Models

356

(1)

F Distribution Application Models

357

(2)

Problems

359

(4)

Quantitative Aspects of System Analysis

363

(62)

Introduction

363

(2)

Simple Systems

365

(9)

Independent Basic Events

365

(1)

AND Gate

366

(1)

OR Gate

366

(1)

Voting Gate

367

(4)

Reliability Block Diagrams

371

(3)

Truth-Table Approach

374

(5)

AND Gate

374

(1)

OR Gate

374

(5)

Structure-Function Approach

379

(4)

Structure Functions

379

(1)

System Representation

379

(1)

Unavailability Calculations

380

(3)

Approaches Based on Minimal Cuts or Minimal Paths

383

(6)

Minimal Cut Representations

383

(1)

Minimal Path Representations

384

(2)

Partial Pivotal Decomposition

386

(1)

Inclusion-Exclusion Formula

387

(2)

Lower and Upper Bounds for System Unavailability

389

(2)

Inclusion-Exclusion Bounds

389

(1)

Esary and Proschan Bounds

390

(1)

Partial Minimal Cut Sets and Path Sets

390

(1)

System Quantification by KITT

391

(25)

Overview of KITT

392

(5)

Minimal Cut Set Parameters

397

(5)

System Unavailability Qs(t)

402

(2)

System Parameter Ws(t)

404

(5)

Other System Parameters

409

(1)

Short-Cut Calculation Methods

410

(4)

The Inhibit Gate

414

(1)

Remarks on Quantification Methods

415

(1)

Alarm Function and Two Types of Failure

416

(9)

Definition of Alarm Function

416

(1)

Failed-Safe and Failed-Dangerous Failures

416

(3)

Probabilistic Parameters

419

(1)

References

420

(1)

Problems

421

(4)

System Quantification for Dependent Events

425

(46)

Dependent Failures

425

(2)

Functional and Common-Unit Dependency

425

(1)

Common-Cause Failure

426

(1)

Subtle Dependency

426

(1)

System-Quantification Process

426

(1)

Markov Model for Standby Redundancy

427

(19)

Hot, Cold, and Warm Standby

427

(1)

Inclusion-Exclusion Formula

427

(1)

Time-Dependent Unavailability

428

(11)

Steady-State Unavailability

439

(3)

Failures per Unit Time

442

(2)

Reliability and Repairability

444

(2)

Common-Cause Failure Analysis

446

(25)

Subcomponent-Level Analysis

446

(3)

Beta-Factor Model

449

(7)

Basic-Parameter Model

456

(5)

Multiple Greek Letter Model

461

(3)

Binomial Failure-Rate Model

464

(3)

Markov Model

467

(2)

References

469

(1)

Problems

469

(2)

Human Reliability

471

(64)

Introduction

471

(1)

Classifying Human Errors for PRA

472

(2)

Before an Initiating Event

472

(1)

During an Accident

472

(2)

Human and Computer Hardware System

474

(7)

The Human Computer

474

(3)

Brain Bottlenecks

477

(1)

Human Performance Variations

478

(3)

Performance-Shaping Factors

481

(8)

Internal PSFs

481

(3)

External PSFs

484

(3)

Types of Mental Processes

487

(2)

Human-Performance Quantification by PSFs

489

(5)

Human-Error Rates and Stress Levels

489

(2)

Error Types, Screening Values

491

(1)

Response Time

492

(1)

Integration of PSFs by Experts

492

(2)

Recovery Actions

494

(1)

Examples of Human Error

494

(4)

Errors in Thought Processes

494

(3)

Lapse/Slip Errors

497

(1)

SHARP: General Framework

498

(1)

THERP: Routine and Procedure-Following Errors

499

(7)

Introduction

499

(3)

General Therp Procedure

502

(4)

HCR: Nonresponse Probability

506

(3)

Wrong Actions due to Misdiagnosis

509

(4)

Initiating-Event Confusion

509

(1)

Procedure Confusion

510

(1)

Wrong Actions due to Confusion

510

(1)

References

511

(2)

Chapter Ten Appendices

513

(1)

Therp for Errors During a Plant Upset

513

(12)

HCR for Two Optional Procedures

525

(5)

Human-Error Probability Tables from Handbook

530

(5)

Problems

533

(2)

Uncertainty Quantification

535

(38)

Introduction

535

(1)

Risk-Curve Uncertainty

535

(1)

Parametric Uncertainty and Modeling Uncertainty

536

(1)

Propagation of Parametric Uncertainty

536

(1)

Parametric Uncertainty

536

(3)

Statistical Uncertainty

536

(1)

Data Evaluation Uncertainty

537

(1)

Expert-Evaluated Uncertainty

538

(1)

Plant-Specific Data

539

(2)

Incorporating Expert Evaluation as a Prior

539

(1)

Incorporating Generic Plant Data as a Prior

539

(2)

Log-Normal Distribution

541

(8)

Introduction

541

(1)

Distribution Characteristics

541

(1)

Log-Normal Determination

542

(1)

Human-Error-Rate Confidence Intervals

543

(2)

Product of Log-Normal Variables

545

(2)

Bias and Dependence

547

(2)

Uncertainty Propagation

549

(1)

Monte Carlo Propagation

550

(5)

Unavailability

550

(2)

Distribution Parameters

552

(1)

Latin Hypercube Sampling

553

(2)

Analytical Moment Propagation

555

(9)

And Gate

555

(1)

Or Gate

556

(1)

And and Or Gates

557

(1)

Minimal Cut Sets

558

(2)

Taylor Series Expansion

560

(1)

Orthogonal Expansion

561

(3)

Discrete Probability Algebra

564

(2)

Summary

566

(1)

References

566

(1)

Chapter Eleven Appendices

567

(1)

Maximum-Likelihood Estimator

567

(2)

Cut Set Covariance Formula

569

(1)

Mean and Variance by Orthogonal Expansion

569

(4)

Problems

571

(2)

Legal and Regulatory Risks

573

(16)

Introduction

573

(1)

Losses Arising From Legal Actions

574

(6)

Nonproduct Liability Civil Lawsuits

575

(1)

Product Liability Lawsuits

575

(1)

Lawsuits by Government Agencies

576

(1)

Worker's Compensation

577

(1)

Lawsuit-Risk Mitigation

578

(1)

Regulatory Agency Fines: Risk Reduction Strategies

579

(1)

The Effect of Government Regulations on Safety and Quality

580

(3)

Stifling of Initiative and Abrogation of Responsibility

581

(1)

Overregulation

582

(1)

Labor and the Safe Workplace

583

(4)

Shaping the Company's Safety Culture

584

(1)

The Hiring Process

584

(3)

Epilogue

587

(2)

Index

589

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Probablistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists

9780780360174

0780360176

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