Preface | p. iii |
Figures | p. ix |
Tables | p. xi |
Summary | p. xiii |
Acknowledgments | p. xxiii |
Acronyms and Abbreviations | p. xxv |
Introduction | p. 1 |
Information and Communications Technologies and Energy in a Digital Society | p. 1 |
Report Objectives, Scope, and Organization | p. 2 |
Approach and Methodology | p. 5 |
Why Create Scenarios? | p. 5 |
Approach to Developing ICT Scenarios | p. 6 |
ICT Driving Factors | p. 7 |
Data, Assumptions, and Uncertainities in the Scenarios | p. 9 |
Information and Communications Technology Scenarios | p. 11 |
Overview of Scenarios | p. 11 |
Common 2001-2006 Scenario | p. 12 |
Ownership and Use of ICT Devices | p. 13 |
E-Commerce and Other ICT Applications | p. 15 |
ICT Issues in 2006 | p. 17 |
Reference Scenario | p. 18 |
Ownership and Use of ICT Devices | p. 19 |
E-Commerce and Other ICT Applications | p. 20 |
ICT Issues in 2021 | p. 21 |
Zaibatsu Scenario | p. 22 |
ICT Applications and Usage | p. 23 |
ICT Issues in 2021 | p. 24 |
Cybertopia Scenario | p. 24 |
ICT Applications and Usage | p. 26 |
ICT Issues in 2021 | p. 26 |
Net Insecurity Scenario | p. 27 |
ICT Applications and Usage | p. 29 |
ICT Issues in 2021 | p. 30 |
Comparing the Scenarios | p. 30 |
Technology Adoption Takes Place over Decades | p. 31 |
Contradictory Trends Proceed Simultaneously | p. 32 |
Unplanned, Mostly Unintended Consequences Dominate the Long-Term Effects of Technology | p. 32 |
Implications of the Scenarios for U.S. Electricity Use | p. 35 |
How ICT Influences Electricity and Other Energy Use | p. 35 |
Electricity Use in the Residential Sector, 2001-2021 | p. 36 |
Residential Electricity Use by ICT Equipment | p. 37 |
Electricity Savings from ICT-Facilitated Energy Management in Residences | p. 43 |
Changes in Residential Electricity Use from Telework | p. 46 |
Summing Up: ICT-Driven Residential Electricity Use, 2001-2021 | p. 49 |
Electricity Use in the Commercial Sector, 2001-2021 | p. 51 |
Commercial Electricity Use by ICT Equipment | p. 53 |
Electricity Savings from ICT-Facilitated Energy Management in Commercial Buildings | p. 57 |
Changes in Commercial Electricity Use from E-Commerce | p. 59 |
Changes in Commercial Sector Electricity Use from Telework | p. 61 |
Summing Up: ICT-Driven Commercial Electricity Use, 2001-2021 | p. 62 |
Electricity Use in the Industrial Sector, 2001-2021 | p. 64 |
Industrial Electricity Use by ICT Equipment | p. 66 |
Changes in Electricity Consumption from ICT Process Control | p. 67 |
Electricity Savings from ICT-Facilitated Energy Management in Industrial Buildings | p. 68 |
Changes in Industrial Electricity Use from E-Commerce | p. 69 |
Changes in Industrial Electricity Use from Telework | p. 70 |
Summing Up: ICT-Driven Industrial Electricity Use, 2001-2021 | p. 70 |
Projected Electricity Use in the Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Sectors, 2001-2021 | p. 72 |
Implications of the Scenarios for the U.S. Electricity System | p. 77 |
Assuring Power Quality and Reliability for Digital Devices | p. 77 |
Using ICT to Improve Grid Reliability and Operations | p. 82 |
Using ICT to Support Distributed Generation and Storage | p. 85 |
Reducing Vulnerability of ICT and Electricity Infrastructures | p. 88 |
Conclusions and Recommendations | p. 93 |
Aligning EERE Programs and Planning with Anticipated ICT Developments | p. 93 |
Improving Electricity Projections Involving ICT | p. 95 |
Improving ICT Scenarios for Energy Planning and Forecasting | p. 97 |
Appendix | |
Information and Communications Technology Scenario Matrix | p. 99 |
ICT-Related Electricity Use Projections | p. 117 |
References | p. 131 |
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