9780851993607

This book provides a detailed review of recent and likely future developments in worldwide wheat markets among major exporting and importing countries. Country specific issues are examined fr Russia and China, whose role in world wheat markets has changed rapidly over the last decade, and for major exporting countries, including the USA, European Union, Canada, Argentina and Australia. The effects of international trade agreements are examined. The book describes the kay economic issues as well as techniques used to analyse wheat commodity market behavior.

Contributors

ix

Preface

xiii

Introduction

xv

Part I: An Overview of Future Development of World Wheat Markets

1

(142)

An Overview of World Wheat Markets

3

(18)

John M. Antle

Vincent H. Smith

North America and the World Grain Market

21

(18)

D. Gale Johnson

Long-term Supply and Demand Trends: Whither the Real Price of Wheat?

39

(38)

John M. Antle

Dermot Hayes

Samarendu Mohanty

Pavel Vavra

Vincent H. Smith

The Longer-run Dynamics of World Wheat Prices: the Role of Stocks

77

(30)

Colin A. Carter

Cesar Revoredo

Vincent H. Smith

The Short-run Dynamics of World Wheat Prices

107

(20)

Eugenio S.A. Bobenrieth

Brian D. Wright

The Future of the Green Revolution: Implications for International Grain Markets

127

(16)

Robert W. Herdt

Part II: State Trading and Import Demand Stability in Major Importing Countries

143

(58)

Wheat in China: Supply, Demand and Trade in the 21st Century

145

(30)

Scott D. Rozelle

Jikun Huang

Russian Agriculture and World Grain Trade: Lessons from the Past and Implications for the Future

175

(26)

Barry K. Goodwin

Thomas J. Grennes

Part III: The GATT Process: Implications for World Wheat Exports

201

(70)

Emerging Differences in State Grain Trading: Australia and Canada

203

(18)

Colin A. Carter

William W. Wilson

The European Union Common Agricultural Policy Under the GATT

221

(32)

Anthony Rayner

Robert Hine

Timothy Lloyd

Vincent H. Smith

Robert Ackrill

State Trading Companies, Time Inconsistency, Imperfect Enforceability and Reputation

253

(18)

Tigran A. Melkonian

Stanley R. Johnson

Part IV: Western Hemisphere Integration

271

(80)

Canadian/US Farm Policies and the Creation of a Single North American Grain Market

273

(40)

Bruce L. Gardner

South American Wheat Markets and MERCOSUR

313

(38)

Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla

Part V: Implications of Domestic International Trade Policies and Markets for Wheat Producers in the USA

351

(80)

The Provision of Rail Service: the Impact of Competition

353

(16)

Murray Fulton

Richard S. Gray

Grain Quality and North American Hard Wheat Exports

369

(20)

William W. Wilson

Bruce L. Dahl

Impacts of Agricultural and Trade Policies on Northern Plains Agriculture: a Case Study of North Dakota Representative Farms

389

(18)

Won W. Koo

Prices, Net Returns and Land Use in Northern Great Plains Dryland Grain Production

407

(14)

John M. Antle

Susan M. Capalbo

James B. Johnson

Walter E. Zidack

Synthesis and Implications

421

(10)

John M. Antle

Vincent H. Smith

Index

431

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The Economics of World Wheat Markets

0851993605

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