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Preface | p. iii |
Figures | p. ix |
Tables | p. xi |
Boxes | p. xiii |
Acknowledgments | p. xv |
Abbreviations | p. xxi |
Foreword: Creating Strategic Analysis | p. 1 |
Foreword: Putting Analysis to Work | p. 3 |
Introduction | |
The Single Integrated Operational Plan | p. 21 |
The Advent of the SIOP | p. 22 |
Defending the Planners of the SIOP | p. 30 |
Calculating the "SIOP Degrade" | p. 37 |
Nuclear Weapons: Strategy and Arms Control | p. 43 |
Limiting Damage to the United States | p. 43 |
Limiting Damages: Allocation of Resources | p. 50 |
Helping with DPMs | p. 54 |
Changing the Paradigm of Arms Control | p. 56 |
From SALT to START | p. 62 |
"Stability" Between U.S. and Soviet Strategic Forces | p. 72 |
The Concept of First-Strike Stability | p. 73 |
Insights on Strategic Offensive Forces | p. 80 |
The Debate over Strategic Defenses | p. 82 |
The Transition from Assured Destruction to Assured Survival | p. 83 |
Calculating First-Strike Stability in the Presence of Strategic Defenses | p. 87 |
Final Thoughts | p. 89 |
Analysis, Force Planning, and the Paradigm for Modernizing | p. 93 |
On Analysis | p. 93 |
Running Air Force Studies and Analysis | p. 101 |
My General Approach and the "Learn to Think" Mandate | p. 101 |
On Recruiting | p. 104 |
The Paradigm for Promoting Innovation and Modernizing the Operational Capabilities of the Force | p. 105 |
A Framework for Modernizing | p. 106 |
Strategies to Tasks: A Construct for Advocating New Concepts | p. 115 |
Strategies to Tasks Debuts | p. 116 |
The Advocacy of Systems | p. 119 |
Strategies to Tasks Employed to This Day | p. 120 |
Modernizing Nuclear Forces | p. 123 |
Killing the Concept for an Area-Denial Weapon | p. 123 |
The B-36 Delivering Megaton Bombs | p. 126 |
Developing the MB-1 Rocket | p. 128 |
Other Observations | p. 136 |
The Short-Range Attack Missile Affair | p. 137 |
The Minuteman Missile | p. 139 |
Responding to a Possible Soviet Nationwide Antiballistic Missile Deployment | p. 141 |
The Minuteman III | p. 144 |
Defining the Deployment of the Minuteman III | p. 146 |
Penetrating Soviet Air Defenses: The Argument for Decoys | p. 149 |
Keeping Bombers in the Triad: The Mix Is the Thing | p. 153 |
Gaining Insight as to the Vulnerability of Submarines on Patrol | p. 158 |
Defining and Promoting the Defense Support Program | p. 160 |
Modernizing Conventional Forces | p. 165 |
The C-5A Fiasco | p. 165 |
Defining the F-X and Saving the F-15 | p. 168 |
The Rationale for the Lightweight Fighter | p. 172 |
Demonstrating the AWACS | p. 179 |
Starting the JSTARS Program | p. 184 |
Keeping the Global Positioning System Alive | p. 188 |
JDAM and the CAG for Bomber Weapons | p. 191 |
Analytical Tools | p. 199 |
Assessing the Effectiveness of Bomber Attacks | p. 199 |
Assessing the Effectiveness of ABM Deployments | p. 202 |
Providing Insights with the SABER GRAND Model | p. 212 |
Another Episode with SABER GRAND | p. 217 |
Fostering Campaign Models | p. 223 |
The Trade-Offs Between Numbers, Yield, and CEP in Hard-Target Kill | p. 226 |
The Trade-Off with "Soft" Area Targets | p. 229 |
Calculus of the Attrition of Agents in a Battle | p. 230 |
Basic Principles | p. 232 |
Scaling Up | p. 234 |
Heterogeneous Engagements | p. 235 |
Future Applications | p. 239 |
Summing Up: Kent's Maxims | p. 243 |
Creating Effective Analyses | p. 243 |
Think Before You Calculate | p. 243 |
Minimize Reliance on Computers | p. 243 |
Seek Help from Outside Experts | p. 244 |
Do Not Treat the Adversary as Static | p. 244 |
Eschew "Recommendations" | p. 244 |
Recruit People Who Can Think | p. 244 |
Invest in People | p. 244 |
Use No-Holds-Barred "Murder Boards" to Improve Your Products | p. 245 |
Making (Good) Things Happen | p. 245 |
Convene Conceivers Action Groups to Promote Innovation in Operational Capabilities | p. 245 |
Beware of the "Hobby Shop" Mentality | p. 245 |
Draw a Bright Line Between Demonstrating a Technology and Developing a System | p. 245 |
Be an Advocate | p. 246 |
Doing the Right Thing | p. 246 |
To Thine Own Self Be True | p. 246 |
Beware of Statements of "Operational Requirements" | p. 247 |
Accept Risks | p. 247 |
Winning Bureaucratic Battles | p. 247 |
Understand the Dynamics of the Real Decisionmaking Process | p. 247 |
Go to the Top | p. 247 |
Seize the Conceptual High Ground | p. 247 |
Anticipate the Need for Analysis | p. 248 |
Recognize that a Good Offense Is Usually Better Than a Good Defense | p. 248 |
Encourage Errors by Your Adversary | p. 248 |
And Finally: Do Your Homework | p. 248 |
Chronology | p. 249 |
Awards | p. 253 |
Bibliography | p. 255 |
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